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The Direction of the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election

The Direction of the U.S. Presidential Election

As we get closer to the end of the 2016 primary presidential election, I am more convinced that my prognosis about the outcome of this epic, which I made in DID weblog on March 25th, can turn out into a reality. The direction of the 2016 presidential election has been engineered in a bipartisan context, using all the resources at their disposal from GOP and DNC elites to super pacs and super delegates to core members of insiders and outsiders, to stop-Trump movement (!), to public figures and left-to-right mainstream Medias, in order to make sure that Donald Trump would be the GOP nominee. That may be the bad part, but the worse starts when you find out that the intention behind this marathon is not for Trump to be the U.S. President, and the only reason for paving the path for him to be the GOP nominee is to make sure that the Democratic nominee will get to be the next U.S. president, how so? Well according to all kind of polls the GOP nominee Donald Trump will lose the national presidential election to any democratic nominee by 2-digit points (by an average of 15%), these polls have consistently been (±3 error) precise. The underlying rationale behind such poll result, at the very least, is the lack of support of two groups of voters for Trump, the Latinos and women, and also the Clinton’s popularity factor among black voters.

So, why the U.S. political stage is getting prepared for at least another four years of democratic presidency? Well the answer is embedded in U.S. overall domestic and foreign policy change, since Obama has taken over the White House. Health care reform, climate change agreement, clean energy pact, planned parenthood policy, free college education, income inequality policy, gun control order, drone war policy & special operation versus boots on the ground, investment in myriad public services, immigration reform act, Cuba policy change, and Iran’s nuclear agreement are some of the policies that has been initiated during Obama’s presidency however not fully executed.

The cost of changing these policies is humongous and beyond the current capacity of U.S. treasury, which already is under about 20 trillion dollars deficit. It is interesting to mention that most of these policies are relatively in parallel to the cohesive order carried out by European socialist states, which raise the question: has United States already started changing its political/social track? If so, then those policies necessitate growing deep and get rooted in the mainframe of the American society for reshaping the way people live, which requires the continuation of at least another 4 years of Obama legacy. Thus America would soon be witnessing the germination of the giant seed of the social democrats, and accordingly the melt down of the current republican political structure for good.

P.S.: This prognostication can still be valid in case some other candidate rather than Donald Trump, like Tom Cruz, happened to be the GOP nominee through contested convention. Remember the polls shows that the democratic presidential candidate senator Bernie Sanders can easily defeat every republican candidate by a significant margin, which justifies why Sanders tends to continue staying in the race to the end of the primaries in spite of the fact that Hillary Clinton is about 800 delegates (including about 500 super delegates) ahead of him, and needs only 218 more delegates to win the nomination. This could be nothing more than a last minute strategy adjustment for the Democratic Party (i.e., super delegates are unbound by the voters and can switch their votes anytime they like).

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Mansur Rastani
May 01, 2016

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